China Power

Trump Makes China Great in Latin America

Trump'southward approach to trade and foreign policy volition only make more than room for People's republic of china in the Western hemisphere.

Trump Makes China Great in Latin America

Credit: Flickr/ Cancillería del Republic of ecuador

When U.Southward. President Donald Trump hosted Chinese president 11 Jinping at Mar-a-Lago on April v, Trump'southward granddaughter, five-twelvemonth-old Arabella Kushner, serenaded Xi and Chinese offset lady Peng Liyuan with a popular Chinese folk song and poesy. Some American pundits, such as Thomas 50. Friedman, saw this as a sign that "Trump is clearly out to make Mainland china great again."

The truth is that China hasn't needed Trump to brand itself great over again, specially in Latin America. Beijing has been unilaterally pursuing a purposeful strategy, ofttimes taking advantage of U.S. equivocation on Latin American strategy. And despite his bombast, Trump'southward contempo actions do not change Washington's long standing policy paralysis towards Latin America, thereby giving China fifty-fifty more than opportunities to gain in the region.

Dropping the TPP Ball

The TPP was envisioned past former U.Due south. President Barack Obama as the primary tool with which the Washington would retain the strategic initiative to atomic number 82 in the Pacific region. In many means, information technology was more than than a trade deal; it was a fundamental strategic maneuver. Clyde Prestowitz, founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute, said that the essence of the TPP is "'geopolitics': that many of our friends in Asia were feeling neglected in America, and that it was being pushed bated in the region by China. Without a sign of American strength in the area, China might stride into the vacuum." Indeed, Obama oftentimes spoke of the TPP as a tool that will prevent China from writing the rules of trade in the about future. Even so, Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the TPP on his first twenty-four hours in the White House, effectively creating a leadership vacuum in the Pacific region — including Latin America.

The Pacific Brotherhood, a free-trading group comprising of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, lost no time in replacing the TPP. In mid-March, ministers and high-level representatives from nations that have signed on to the TPP, likewise as China, Colombia, and Republic of korea, met for the get-go time since the United States' withdrawal from the trade accord. According to Heraldo Muñoz, Chile'due south strange Government minister, the signal from Viña del Mar, where the meeting took place, was articulate: with or without the U.S., "multilateral merchandise and Pacific integration [is] alive and boot."

So as the Us withdraws from Pacific trade leadership, countries are turning to China. Peru'due south president, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, made his first strange trip last year to Mainland china, non Washington. This is hardly surprising since Communist china is now Peru's number 1 trading partner. Information technology is also not surprising, then, that on March 23, Republic of peru was admitted as one of xiii new members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Whatsoever the United States intentions, countries like Peru are globe-trotting farther into People's republic of china'southward orbit.

"China Wins if NAFTA Dies"

Every bit Trump mulls renegotiating or withdrawing from the North American Free Merchandise Agreement ( NAFTA), China has positioned itself to proceeds in the aftermath. Consider that NAFTA strongly reinforces Mexico'southward structural ties with the United States by offering zilch tariffs and providing legal guarantees. As a result, Mexico has become a peak export market for the United States, buying over xv percent of everything made in America then sold abroad. The value of U.S. exports to Mexico topped $230 billion in 2016. The 23-yr-one-time understanding has helped United mexican states not only boost trade only as well transform its economy, moving from a commodity-driven economic system to an advanced manufacturing exporter.

But the potential demise of NAFTA would put all of that into jeopardy and give Prc an opportunity to capitalize on the economic foundations it has already built in United mexican states. For case, China's state-owned JAC Motors invested $2.2 billion in a articulation venture to produce SUVs with Carlos Slim's Giant Motors, making China a major player in the Mexican car industry.

Whatsoever meaning expansion of Beijing's corporate presence and political and war machine relationship with Mexico would likely trigger further anxiety from the United States and forcefulness a reassessment of the strategic and commercial threat that China poses to U.S. interests in Latin America. Little wonder, then, that Shannon O'Nell, the senior beau for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, declared that "China wins if NAFTA dies."

Kicking the Tin Down in Mercosur

When it comes to South America, the Trump administration appears set to continue previous American administrations' inability to make a purposeful decision to appoint more deeply with the region. Economically, the Trump administration seems willing to antagonize S American countries in the name of protectionism and scoring domestic political points. For instance, on January 23, the Trump administration issued a 60-day stay to review the lifting of a 16-year ban on the import of Argentine lemons, previously ordered past Obama. The stated reason was that "every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, volition be made to do good American workers and American families." Information technology is a decision that surely left a fair few tucumanos with bitter tastes in their mouths.

Past dissimilarity, Chinese companies are decorated embarking on new projects in South America. Shandong Gold, a state-backed Chinese company, recently agreed to pay near $i billion for half of Barrick Gold's Veladero mine in Argentina. The Veladero mine is expected to produce every bit much as 830,000 ounces of gold this year, making this a major victory for Mainland china's economy.

Fifty-fifty politically, the United States seems to flirt with avoiding leadership, an alarming development from the putative leader of the gratuitous world. The Trump administration informed the Washington, D.C.-based Inter-American Human Rights Commission that it would not participate in three hearings on March 21 about Trump's executive orders on clearing, as part of a review of human rights cases in countries beyond the hemisphere. The highly unusual step of boycotting several sessions was a bad mistake that will weaken U.South. efforts to condemn Cuba, Ecuador, and other systematic human rights abusers.

Falling Behind in the Final Frontier

The Usa has long prided itself in having the nigh ambitious space programme in the globe, something that Trump tried tapping into during his accost to Congress on February 28. During his speech, Trump outlined his lofty ambitions to put "American footprints on distant worlds" by 2026, a nod to the country's 250th birthday.

But given Trump'south full general antagonism toward scientific funding, how much of his outer space calendar is realistic, and volition Prc's achievements in space exploration be greater, even if information technology receives less press in the West? In 2013, China had its first "soft landing" on the moon, and hopes to be the beginning country to transport a probe to the dark side of the moon in 2018. By 2025, China wants to take man astronauts on the moon over again, symbolically picking up where the United States left off in 1972.

Perhaps more ominously for the United States, Chinese and Argentinian officials appear that a new space-monitoring base in Patagonia, Argentina, will be operational by March 2017. Although Chinese sources accept described the base equally purely for infinite exploration purposes, not everyone is convinced. Pundits have pointed out that at that place are secret clauses in the Sino-Argentinian understanding, though Argentina'southward president Mauricio Macri has vowed to make the contents public. When Macri visits the White Business firm on Apr 27, he volition undoubtedly be asked about those secret clauses.

It would seem that, fifty-fifty in the realm of space exploration, the United States finds itself fighting a rearguard activity while China is largely costless to pursue its own calendar in Latin America. All of these factors combine to advise that barring a dramatic change of course from Washington, we will see a much greater China in Latin America in the foreseeable future.

Antonio Hsiang is Professor and Director of the Centre for Latin American Economic system and Trade Studies at the Chihlee Academy of Technology. He obtained a Ph.D. in Political Science and MA in Political Economy from Claremont Graduate University and MA in Latin American Studies from New York University.